The Old Philosopher

Let’s Keep America First

2010-08-04T15:57:00.002-04:00

There is a group of Americans that are known, in certain circles, as the Tea Baggers (TB’s), they belong to an organization called the “Tea Party”. I’ve only seen them on TV, but they look like neighbors and family that are willing to get off their butts and be heard.
What are they saying?
The original TB’s were reacting to a tea tax levied by the King of England and their war cry was “No taxation without representation”. The present day TB’s don’t seem to have as coherent a message, at least not related to taxation and representation, unless it’s the fact that they aren’t represented, but some are being taxed. They carry signs at the various rallies that I’ve seen. The signs say what they are against; higher taxes, bigger government and what they are for; carrying weapons, freedom of speech and to generally do what they want to do without government interference; and I’m for Santa Claus, Mom and apple pie. What I’m for is easily delineated, what they are for is a little more complex. Why did these folks really get off their butts to demonstrate?
High taxes? We in the USA pay, including income, corporate, Social Security and excise taxes about half as much as other developed countries, according to The Tax Policy Center. That’s one group’s set of figures. The Heritage Foundation (a right wing think tank) comes up with a figure that we pay as much as the Japanese, and about 35% less than most of the other developed nations of the world. So what do the TB’s want when they plead for lower taxes? Zimbabwe and Bangladesh take a much lower % of GDP.
My unofficial count had the “We want smaller government” or “Government is too big” signs as next most popular. Government smaller than what, or too big for who? To get smaller government, what would one cut out? Defense (3/4 of a trillion), Highway repair, hospitals (VA), Medicare, Social Security, US Postal Service, courts, FBI, CIA, SEC, National Park Service, SEC, EPA, IRS, FDIC, Federal Reserve and the list goes on. What about agricultural subsidy payments to farmers, and education? Speaking of education here’s a fact for you, China and India graduate 7 times as many engineers as we do. In 20 years the United States will be a second rate nation. Is that what we want? I saw Michelle Bachmann on C-Scan the other day, screaming at the top of her lungs, “Get rid of them all”. “We don’t need government, leave us alone!” I saw some older people with signs “Don’t touch my Social Security” and “Don’t touch my Medicare” and I’ll bet dollars to doughnuts that within 5 years a new sign will appear; “Don’t touch my health care, unless you want to give me more”. I don’t see any signs that say “Educate our kids better” or “We need more engineers”. Is there any thinking going into these demonstrations?
Some commentators on radio, TV and in print ask, “What has the government ever done right? I don’t know what country they’re asking about. My personal answer to that question is the U.S.Government does a lot of things extraordinarily well. Believe it or not, the US Postal Service is the best in the world. There is less corruption in our government, there is more responsiveness, our service academies are the envy of every nation and all the people in the United States who work for the Federal, State and Municipal governments spend their money here, not in Argentina, Brazil or India. The US Government doesn’t outsource to China or India like our fat cat corporations. The TB’s should look at all the government financed inventions and the products that came from government sponsored R&D. Our government has changed the world with its research backed products; the internet, transistors, solar panels and hundreds of others. The United States has 18 of the 20 best universities in the world, and our government is their largest supporter. I’m proud of what my government has accomplished for the betterment of mankind and its citizens. Little government can’t do these things and corporations won’t do it. They want a return on investment immediately, government has more patience.
Where does big government come from? How did it get so big? I know that I didn’t do it and I’ll bet that you didn’t do it either. So who did the dirty deed? My guess is that a nonvoting entity called the U.S. corporation. Why do corporations spend so much money on lobbyists and campaign financing? Surprise! They do it to get more money for their special interests and all this money goes to make for bigger government in the form of new and bigger projects. Corporate America is involved with everything. If the corporations weren’t putting so much pressure on the congress, the government would have never got to the size that is. The congress would never have come up with all the programs that it has over the years except for the corporate pressure that has been applied over the years. This is why our defense budget is so big. We spend more on defense than all the other countries in the world added together. The “military, industrial complex” runs this country, and they don’t have one vote. Not one Vote!
Where are the trillions of dollars that we’ve been spending on wars, that aren’t even near to being necessary? They, the dollars, went to the “Military Industrial complex”. One of our greatest generals, President Eisenhower, warned us about the “Military Industrial complex”, he was extremely distrustful of them. Nobody was threatening to invade the USA with millions of troops, but the Bush/Chaney cabal managed to get us involved in two wars that are unwinnable. Instead of spending the money on promoting alternative fuels, they send our troops out against ghosts of the cabal’s making to protect an oil supply that is not protectable. The corporations have the money and they buy the votes.You, I and the TB’s have no say in the process. The politicians tell us to go out and vote. Vote for what, vote for whom? You tell me.
The people of the United States have to start thinking of the future. If we spend on educating more engineers and R & D, the new industries that develop will create well paying jobs which will create the taxes to pay off our debt. The debt will never be paid off by a second rate country. Let’s keep America first!

It Doesn’t Have to Get Ugly

2010-08-04T15:55:00.002-04:00

By Bob Bregman
Yes, Eddie everything you say could come true, but like they say in Gershwin’s Porgy & Bess; “It Ain’t Necessarily So.” There is a way out of this mess
A little background first. Since WWII, the recessions in the USA have generally been caused by our penchant for over selling; autos, housing, capital goods (steam shovels, diesel engines, jet aircraft, etc.). Not all at once mind you, sometimes it was autos, sometimes another industry.
The auto companies in order to keep their factories going would give bigger and bigger discounts; however the buying public would eventually have all the new cars that they could afford, and then some that they couldn’t afford. At that point there wasn’t anyone left to sell a car to and inventory piled up in the dealers lots and in rail yards and in factory lots. The result was that the auto manufacturers had to shut the factories down and lay off workers. So, we had an inventory recession which lasted until the public decided that they had paid down enough debt and started to creep back into the showroom and the same cycle would start again. The exact same scenario played out with micro-chips, computers, swimming pools, hula hoops, you name it, but at different times vs autos or capital goods
The big deal this time is that we pushed the string on autos, housing and capital goods all at the same time and now we have an inventory recession in the three biggest industries at the same time and that’s why we feel this recession so deeply. One doesn’t have to point fingers; we were all in on it. Oh, some more than others, but there is hardly anyone who didn’t participate one way or another, on the front side or the back side (except, of coarse, me and you ;-) ).
Why is it so difficult to get out of this unholy mess? One main reason is that while the country is waiting for the inventory of homes and cars to get chewed up; there are no new industries for the workers to get jobs. Another reason is that the public’s credit has to be replenished, this takes savings. If the public is saving, the public isn’t spending. 70% of what happens in the USA, sales wise, is done by the public. Without that number growing, the economy doesn’t grow. The economy runs on credit, if the consumer is not using his credit, we get a serious slow down. We get what we are going though now.
What happens now? The government steps in and honestly like the horse cavalry, comes to the rescue. Hooray! We need an energy policy; the government can provide one that sponsors alternative energy projects. The USA, the most efficient and inventive country in the history of mankind, is falling behind in the race to become the preeminent manufacturer of alternative energy systems; wind, solar, geothermal and nuclear. As an example take the wind turbine industry, of the top ten turbine companies in the world, only one, GE, is in the United States. How can the congress let this happen? Another example is China. The Chinese are building solar power manufacturing facilities as fast as they can. Why aren’t the Republicans as up front as the Democrats in trying to craft an energy bill that will eventually create millions of well paying manufacturing jobs? I believe that an energy bill will get through the congress and lots of money will be spent on partnerships between the government and the private sector. Lots of money will be saved as we reduce our dependence on foreign oil. Venezuela’s Chavez has recently threatened to cut off oil to the U.S., if we don’t stop helping our allies in Columbia. Plus we can cut down on the billion dollars a day we send to OPEC and other oil producing nations, ONE BILLION DOLLARS A DAY! In order to start job building immediately, the government, through the private sector should cover the roof of every government, state and municipal building with solar panels. This will produce hundreds of thousands of jobs, particularly in the building trades, where the job market has been hardest hit. Whatever the government does to help, it will require less carbon based energy. Carbon fuels do not put more people to work, except in Saudi Arabia, Nigeria, Venezuela and Iran. Photovoltaic power puts people to work here. China the leading producer of photovoltaic modules sees the future and is investing in it. We in the USA let the oil and coal industries lead our Republican and some Democrats congressional representatives around by their noses, like a bull with a ring through his nose. It’s embarrassing to watch. The oil and coal industries are doing everything that they can to ensure that no energy bill goes through, which to me proves the need for an energy bill. If they don’t want it, then it must be good for us, you and me, the people.
In the past we could take our time with reviving the auto, computer industries and the like, because we had a lock on those businesses. In the old days people were laid off, now they are fired, never to be rehired. The manufacturing has gone overseas. We set up this free trade nonsense. It’s free trade for everyone but us, we abide by the rules, no one else does. We lost the advantage of mass production to countries that under ordinary circumstances wouldn’t have a prayer against us. We still have the most productive workforce in the world. Let’s use them!
It’s time for both political parties to get together and start working for the benefit of the people, not the banks, not Wall Street, the people! Bottom line, things in this country could get a lot better faster than anyone believes.

Tax cuts for the Wealthy…What about the rest of us...HuH? Trickle Down…Baloney!

2010-08-04T15:50:00.001-04:00

You are probably tired of even thinking about politics and politicians, and I can’t blame you for feeling that way, but something is going on in this country that we must, as citizens pay attention to, whether we like it or not. As Senator Clag horn Hen said in the Hanna Barbera animated cartoon “Pay attention boy, or you’re going to lose your lunch”.
The conservative right is trying to foist on us the thought that tax cuts for the rich are the way to reduce the deficit. They use as their example of how this works, the tax cut that was enacted by the Reagan administration. They point to the expansion that took place during the Reagan years, and how great things were in the ‘80’s. The only problem with their thinking is that the deficit rose 189% during the Reagan years. 189%! From 1982 to 1989. WOW!
Tax cuts for the wealthy don’t work anymore. Why? #1. Taxes aren’t high enough to make a difference. Reagan cut taxes that were in the 80 to 90% bracket. #2. And most important under Reagan the money saved by paying lower taxes stayed in the United States. It was invested in stocks, bonds, plant and equipment. Today the wealthy buy everything but U.S. goods. They buy Yen, Chinese stocks, gold. None of these things help the U.S. economy. In fact under Bush II the rich corporations even benefited from shipping our jobs overseas. Reagan and Bush II were rich man’s presidents and that’s a fact. The middleclass has gone nowhere since Reagan deregulation. Average earnings after inflation are the same today as they were in 1982. Average executive earnings have gone sky high in the same period. And the guys that run hedge funds are taxed at a lower rate than you are, and they make billions. Where do they invest their money? With the rest of the rich of course.
The tax breaks for the wealthy must be allowed to lapse in 2011! If you want to give the rich a tax advantage, get something for it. Don’t let them ship the money out of here. They can do anything that they want with their after tax income, but any new tax break should be targeted to the U.S. economy. So, monies invested here would be deductible from their income, up to a certain limit, that would ensure that the money was invested here. Investments overseas would not be deductable. Maybe that way, if the wealthy get tax cuts, at least the rest of us will participate too. I believe that is how to create jobs. That is what is fair.

“What your brain doesn’t know, but will tell you anyway”

2010-08-04T15:45:00.001-04:00

Awhile back, Jean Horst wrote an article “The Glaringly Obvious… or What Your Brain Knows But Won’t Tell You”. I thought it was great. It talked of the amazing capabilities of the human brain. I would like to bring into the discussion some other capabilities of the human brain that are amazing, but are not so benign. It lies.
In my life I’ve found out that the biggest liar I know is me. How does that happen? I mean well, but I’m always trying to think ahead. How does one think ahead? Well, if you’ve got a brain and most of us do, we use it to think. Think up schemes; think about tomorrow’s weather, or where the stock market will be sometime in the future. Then we start to worry. Will our picnic plans be ruined, will our 401K become a 201K again. Where do these ideas come from? The brain of course. And the problem is that the brain lies. It doesn’t mean to lie, but it can’t help itself. I ask it a question and it tries to answer, but bottom line as much as it tries, it can’t predict the future
How many times have you worried about something; taking a test, meeting new people, paying the mortgage? Plenty, right? How many times did worrying help the out come of your distress? I would venture that it never helped and caused a great deal of aggravation before the subject of the worry came to pass. And when it finally did come to pass, the event wasn’t nearly as bad as you thought it would be. Keep remembering, your brain doesn’t have clue about the future. It doesn’t even know if you’ll be here tomorrow. So the old WWI song was exactly right;
“What’s the use of worrying,
It never was worthwhile,
So pack up your troubles in your old kit bag and
Smile, smile, smile”

Yeah, you can do it! I did. I stopped worrying a long time ago.
Good luck

What Happened to Our Democracy?

2009-08-24T16:46:00.000-04:00

The American people have given up on Democracy! They have turned it over to the corporations, who pay the lobbyists, who write the bills that come out of our elected Congress. Why don’t we just let the lobbyists run things? Then we could save all the money spent on electing people who do nothing. It seems that the Republicans would like that kind of government, except that they would lose their jobs and easy way of life. So, they will say NO to everything, even if they favor the item, because the corporations don’t want to change, unless, they can make time go backwards.
Wake up America! As usual, you forget that the bankers and brokers brought our country to this stage and that our President saved us from their “stupidity”. Some of you hark back to your “savior”, Ronald Reagan. He took office in 1980, in a recession. We got out of that recession 3 1/2 years later. His fancy tax cuts made the rich, richer and the poor, poorer. The middle class in the US is no better off today than it was in the “good old days” of Reagan’s presidency. President Obama has been in office 8 months and everyone says the recession is over! I’ll take Obama over Reagan any day and twice on Sunday.
Some of you say, “Get the government out of my way, I want to be a Bill Gates, or a Michael Dell and I can’t achieve with the government controlling things”. The average man or woman in America is more likely to be hit by lightening than have the success of the two previously mentioned gentlemen. Then we have the heads of large corporations and their salaries. They pull down 500 to 600 times the average worker’s salary. Is there anyone out there who seriously thinks that one person is worth 500 times the salary of another? Jesus would be rolling his eyes; “What’s going on here?”
Open your eyes America! Your being led down the primrose path by a bunch of unelected talking heads, lead by Limbaugh, Hannity, Malkin, Coulter, O’Reilly and Beck to name a few. The President is not trying to steal your country; he is trying to give it back to you! Do you really think that we would be out of this recession if McCain and Palin were governing our country? Do you really think that reducing taxes and letting the banks go under would have put us in a position to say “the recession is over”. Thank your lucky stars that Obama was elected.
Good luck.

Liars

2009-08-07T14:49:00.004-04:00

There was an article on the internet the other day which said that each "clunker" turned in cost us (the tax payer), $45,354. Edmunds, an auto appraisal firm, came up with this figure. They said, 200,000 cars would have been traded in anyway, so really only about 22,000 were new sales, thus the $45,354.
There's an old saying, "Figures don't lie, but liars figure"
Mark Twain
If Edmunds knew what car sales would ordinarily be during the 4 day period the clunkers were traded, then I would pay attention, but they're just playing with numbers to get their name in the paper. What a load! The annual sales rate of autos went up substantially in the month and all the new sales weren't even reported yet. Clunkers are good! Hail to clunkers! It's helping to reduce unemployment and get money moving again.
Good luck to you all.
The Old Philosopher

Letter I sent to my two Maine Senators

2009-08-06T14:11:00.002-04:00

Dear Senators Collins and Snowe,
First I would like to thank you for being such great Senators. You are fair, thoughtful and look out for the best interests of the American people and the people from the great August 6, 2009 State of Maine. I am very proud to be represented by the both of you.
Please give the Presidents health care bill a fair hearing. I'm on Medicare and am satisfied, of coarse I wish it was less expensive, but heck, I would be dead now if it were not for Medicare, so I'm not complaining. The Republican plan is great for the rich, but my wife has no insurance because she went from full time to one day a week. We can't even buy COBRA because she still works for the same employer. That's a hole that a lot of people must fall into, it's pretty deep.
This Cap and Trade stuff is not new. I'm sure you remember Reagan's first attempt at controlling acid rain and that a bill finally got passed under Bush I The Clean Air Act. The bill was a big success and the emissions are still traded.
An early example of an emission trading system has been the SO2 (sulfur dioxide) trading system under the framework of the Acid Rain Program of the 1990 Clean Air Act in the U.S. Under the program, which is essentially a cap-and-trade emissions trading system, SO2 emissions were reduced by 50 percent from 1980 levels by 2007.[50] Some experts argue that the "cap and trade" system of SO2 emissions reduction has reduced the cost of controlling acid rain by as much as 80 percent versus source-by-source reduction.[51][52]

In 1997, the State of Illinois adopted a trading program for volatile organic compounds in most of the Chicago area, called the Emissions Reduction Market System.[53] Beginning in 2000, over 100 major sources of pollution in eight Illinois counties began trading pollution credits.

In 2003, New York State proposed and attained commitments from nine Northeast states to form a cap and trade carbon dioxide emissions program for power generators, called the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI). This program launched on January 1, 2009 with the aim to reduce the carbon "budget" of each state's electricity generation sector to 10 percent below their 2009 allowances by 2018.[54]

Also in 2003, U.S. corporations were able to trade CO2 emission allowances on the Chicago Climate Exchange under a voluntary scheme. In August 2007, the Exchange announced a mechanism to create emission offsets for projects within the United States that cleanly destroy ozone-depleting substances.[55]

In 2007, the California Legislature passed the California Global Warming Solutions Act, AB-32, which was signed into law by Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger. Thus far, flexible mechanisms in the form of project based offsets have been suggested for five main project types. A carbon project would create offsets by showing that it has reduced carbon dioxide and equivalent gases. The project types include: manure management, forestry, building energy, SF6, and landfill gas capture.

Since February 2007, seven U.S. states and four Canadian provinces have joined together to create the Western Climate Initiative, a regional greenhouse gas emissions trading system.[56]

On November 17, 2008 President-elect Barack Obama clarified, in a talk recorded for YouTube, that the US will enter a cap and trade system to limit global warming.[57]

The 2010 United States federal budget proposes to support clean energy development with a 10-year investment of US $15 billion per year, generated from the sale of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions credits. Under the proposed cap-and-trade program, all GHG emissions credits would be auctioned off, generating an estimated $78.7 billion in additional revenue in FY 2012, steadily increasing to $83 billion by FY 2019.[58].(Wikipedia)
This sounds like a program that both parties ought to vote for.
Thank you for your time.
If I can help you in analyzing an economic problem, I'd be glad to help. I have a big advantage over most analysts because I'm not an economist.
Sincerely yours,
Bob Bregman
York, ME

Just trying to help things along.

The Old Philosopher

A Possibility

2009-08-05T12:54:00.003-04:00

Here is a possible picture as I see it. It aint necessarily so, but it gives me something to look for.
Stock markets are rising in the U.S., China and Japan plus all the lesser markets are also rising. Money is flowing in from all over the world, pushing stocks higher. Hedge funds, pension funds, mutual fund and to a smaller extent the public are all being forced to participate, because there is no other market big enough to handle so much cash. Now the only consumer in this group is the public and they are the smallest part, so the market rise does little to increase consumer spending. Therefore the economy doesn't expand as fast as the market and we have the final bubble!
The Fed is hoping that the rising market will lift consumption, and say that it does, but it wont rise as fast as the market is rising. The markets get way ahead of themselves, forcing the Fed to raise interest, because nobody wants to buy 3% bonds when the stock markets are roaring. In other words it isn't raising rates because there is a boom going on, it's raising them because it needs the money to finance the ongoing deficit, plus tax reciepts are the worst since the Great Depression. Tax collection are down because people are still out of work and corporations are not growing, earning aren't growing and they all have tax loss carryovers due to their giant losses.
With the market at a high, interest rates going up and the economy not yet out of the woods; any disruption, such as oil rising further, a small country getting into financial trouble, housing doesn't recover, autos can't get above 10 million unit/year,the dollar drops precipitously, interest rates start to ratchet up because of inflation fears, or interest rates drop because of deflation fears. Fear can raise its ugly head for no particularly good reason. The talking heads and empty suits will give plenty of reasons, but always after the fact.
Bottom line, if the market advances too far in relation to the economy's growth, and then the economy doesn't show any growth, the market has a big problem. At 1,000 the S&P 500 is selling at 18.2 X's projected 2009 earnings of $55. Projected earnings for 2010 are $74.75, an approximate 50% increase. If that happens the market is selling at 13.4 X's earning, not too bad. At 1,100 it's 14.8 X's 2010 projected earnings, still not bad, but if earnings don't grow, the rush for the exits will be horrendous. If earning look like they are going to be $55 or less in 2010, then the S&P 500 earnings ratio could be in the single digits. That would be HORRENDOUS!
My guess, if the economy starts down again, and I'm not saying that it will, but if it does buy some puts (70's ??), you'll need all the protection you can get.
Good luck and let's hope that the market is right about the future, and that all of the above is just something to think about.

Humorous to some, sad to others.

2009-06-24T12:46:00.002-04:00

This is hard to believe, but this is the way the U.S. and China do business.

Suppose that you made a nice product that I really wanted. So I come to you and say, "I'd like to buy 10 widgets at $100 a piece, so I'll give you a $1,000. OK?" You say, "That sounds good to me." Some time later you deliver the widgets and ask for payment. I give you a 10 year 4% note, instead of cash. You give me a funny look, but take the note because I tell that I'm going to buy a lot more of your widgets and other things you make. What a wonderful way to trade! Goods for 4% notes!
My own opinion here is that the Chinese are really not that stupid, so what is going on? I believe that the Chinese costs are inflated for the goods sold by two or three hundred percent. I say this because the very same good sold to America will sell on the street in China for 10 to 20% of the U.S. buying price. They can afford to sell widgets for 0% notes or even pay us interest on the notes. Not only that, but they get to scare the BeJesus out of the U.S. Congress and the public as well. Now that's a real bargain!
So, do you find this situation humorous or sad?
The Old Philosopher

Comments on Bill Clinton's Economics

2009-06-10T11:48:00.001-04:00

May 31, 2009 4:38 PM The New York Times
This was in response to an article titled, “Bill Clinton, on His Economic Legacy”
By David Leonhardt (May 27,2009)
“Given the range of issues Peter Baker covers in his article about Bill Clinton for the coming New York Times Magazine, there was not room for anything close to Mr. Clinton’s entire comments on his economic record. And they’re fascinating (as is the article). So we’re going to post, below, the transcript of that portion of the discussion between Mr. Clinton and Mr. Baker.
In several places, I have annotated it, in italics. I’d be interested in hearing the thoughts of readers and other bloggers, too. (Update: Noam Scheiber, Mark Thoma and Matthew Yglesias weigh in.)……………..”
You can read the entire article by looking up the author in The NY Times archives. It’s about Bill defending his economic policies.
My comments:
I am a 79 year old ex-republican. Now an Obamaite. Mr Clinton left no economic legacy to be proud of.
Bill Clinton is possibly the luckiest President to ever hold office. Here is a man who was up for impeachment for lying. who took credit for a massive stock market rise, who did nothing to improve the lot of the working man and who helped perpetuate the turning of the American government into a giant corporation that was to be for the benefit of the wealthiest U.S. citizens. And now The Times is lauding him. The GOP propaganda machine( Spelled: Carl Rove ), which perpetuates the myth that, sleepy Mr Reagan, was the father of Capitalism for the People and saved our country from the Russian Bear, also kept Mr. Clinton at bay by using Mr. Reagan’s name and the Gallup poll ( which Mr. Clinton used to run the country ). Not many original ideas come from that quarter. I wish that President Obama had been in his place. He is a man with ideas to help the working man, and take the government back from the corporations and their lackeys, the lobbyists..
— Bob Bregman

Normal

2009-06-07T12:12:00.003-04:00

This is just a little piece on how the statistics of normalcy can fool you. The normal of birth and death in the State of Florida is: It's normal to be born a Latino and die a Jew. How about that for a misleading statistic? My point, don't be fooled by what politicians and others say about percentage's of this and curves of that. The question you must always ask is, "Compared to what"? Everyone uses stats for their own purposes. The old saw, "Figures don't lie, liars figure" is more true today than ever. In the next few months as the President tries to get health care for everyone in this country, you will see some of the most extraordinary lies told by anti health care advocates, using statistics that can't possibly be proven. You will see particular comparisons of U.S. vs Canada or the U.K.. All the stories will be anecdotal rather than sold facts and figures. The Pres has a tough problem, but the bottom line is that this is the only advanced country in the World that doesn't take care of the health of all it's citizens. We can do it here without breaking the countries financial back. After all, the insurance companies have big buildings full of offices, computers, execs, workers plus stockholders who expect a profit and dividends. That's a lot of overhead that's not going toward our health care. Last I heard, we in the U.S. spend 2.7 trillion dollars per year on health care, and there are still 47 million people left out of the system. That's over $8,800/year for every man, woman and child in the country.
The End
Speak to you all soon.
The Old Philosopher

New book

2009-06-04T11:49:00.002-04:00

I just finished "The Horse Soldiers". It's about the first days of the war in Afghanistan, just after 9/11. I thought it was a great story, with an epilogue that doubled the value of the read. I recommend it to anybody who has been in the service and to all who want to keep American participation in war to a minimum, but still be victorious. Sounds like a tall order, but this is the way.

Luck!

2009-05-14T10:27:00.001-04:00

Risk taking-Why do we do it?
We are blinded by the possible outcomes-Riches, power, love, notoriety,etc. What are the real odds of winning (getting rich)? Very, very high. The cemetery of failed enterprises is very silent. We hear about the grand successes, we don't hear much about the failures, grand or otherwise, even though they out number successes by a wide margin.
So, can success be ascribed to the casual relationship between specific traits and subsequent events? Trump is shrewd, tall, hardworking and cynical. Is that why he's rich?
Can failure be ascribed to the casual relationship between specific traits and subsequent events? Bob the Bear is shrewd, tall, hardworking, and cynical. Is that why he's poor? What truly separates Trump from Bob the Bear is a single factor-Luck. Plain luck. that's why you often see rich men and women become poor, they ran out of luck. Madoff investors, 401k owners at Enron, Lucent, World Communications, the list goes on and on.
Nobody deserves to be a millionaire and conversely, nobody deserves not to be a millionaire. So if you can deserve either rich or not rich, what is the difference? Again, Luck
Now it gets a bit scary as we go further along this road of fortune, good or bad. The bigger question becomes; how much do we have to do with our success or failure; wealth or poverty?
Think about it. Not very comforting to realize that luck is the difference!
The basic ideas for this blog come from "The Black Swan" by N.N.Taleb.

Mother's Day

2009-05-10T17:22:00.002-04:00

Good day all you Mothers out there.
I hope that you all had a great day. It's nice once a year to pay homage to you wonderful women. actually everyday should be mother's day, but then who would be left to run the world. Sorry girls, you'll just have to keep running things.
Lots of love to all of you.

the Old Philosopher (and I do mean old)

Bank Day

2009-05-08T12:16:00.001-04:00

Well the stress test is over and there is a huge sigh of relief, just like when I used to take them. If I live it was a success, the banks are alive and seem to be doing just fine. For the heads of the banks it may be a different story. Ken Lewis CEO of the Bank of America, I told them to stay in Frisco, is humbled (in his words ) by the stockholders removing him from the chairmanship of the board.
He was on CNBC for 20 minutes and Bloomberg for 1 hour! He made what I thought was a good point this morning on CNBC. He was asked why didn't the banks regulate themselves on the dispensing of loans to uncredit worthy borrowers? No one twisted their arm to make bad loans. His response was that banks compete for deposits, so on a level playing field they have to go as far as legally possible to draw in money. Then they have to loan all that money out as fast as possible. If they don't do the above they will lose market share, and that's a no-no.
Now if the Federal Reserve and the SEC had been doing their job, they would have put the breaks on the heated up economy, by raising interest rates, reducing the money supply, increasing bank reserves and stopping the proliferation of derivatives. Now why didn't they do their jobs???
It's my opinion that the President of the United States of America told the Federal Reserve, the SEC, FDIC, FHA, Fanny Mae, and anyone that he might control that he needed lots of money (Taxes,Debt) to prosecute the wars that he was fighting. His thinking was that if the economy was rolling along at high speed, the war wouldn't be so much of a burden on the minds of the people. In other words the people were not asked to sacrifice for the war, so everything was great. In other words the President, Bush II, was afraid of even a mild slowdown. Because of this short sightedness, the people of this country are sacrificing anyway, but much more than if a bit of cold water had been thrown on the economy when everything got overheated.
We are talking TRILLIONS! For what?
All comments are welcome, now that you know where to find me.
Hang in there. I think our new President has a brain and best of all he knows how to use it for the benefit of the people.
Thanx for your time.

Ladies Day

2009-05-07T10:38:00.003-04:00

A great morning for the ladies. Two very impressive, smart, dedicated women showed up on the CNBC Squawk Box this morning. Arianna Huffington, who most of you have probably heard of and Elizabeth Warren who most of you have never heard of. Arianna runs the Huffington Post, an internet newspaper that is wonderful, not your everyday daily (www.huffingtonpost.com). Elizabeth is the Chairwoman of the Congressional Oversight Panel, which oversees the Government stimulus plan. I've seen Elizabeth on TV a few times and I've read about her books and essays, which cover subjects that are dear to my heart, like the crushing of the middle class in this country. To get a flavor of who this woman is go to www.youtube.com. "Conversations with History" or look under her name for some great videos. You can also get acquainted with Arianna Huffington on YouTube under name and "Authors@Google: Arianna Huffington". These two women have both been elected to the "Time 100 Most Influential People". President Obama can be proud of having these two brilliant women in his constituency. I'm proud.
Follow up on these two, it will be very enlightening, guaranteed!
One more item. Eliot Spitzer was on board this morning. I can't believe that I would listen to him, but I did, and learned a lot more from listening now than when he was Governor of NY. Funny, how time changes attitudes??? I'll save that for another time.
Debi, how did your operation go? I hope that you came through with flying colors.
The Old Philosopher

Today's Debate

2009-05-05T11:17:00.001-04:00

Well here we are, another day, another opinion. The opinion of the day I believe belongs to the Democrat Senator from Ohio, Sherrod Brown. He's a Democrat and he's worried about President Obama's trade policy. He feels that the giant American trade deficit with the rest of the world, is due to an unlevel playing field.
If he wanted to talk facts instead of politics, he would find out that in 2008 two thirds (2/3) of the deficit came from the importation of petroleum products. those imports have nothing to do with the creation of jobs or the lose of jobs. Another 20.5% of imports came from Canada and Mexico, our two most reliable allies and trading partners. It's in the U.S's interest to keep them both economically strong. So why is the good senator complaining? I'd have to take a wild guess that if you are in politics and you don't complain about something, nobody wants to talk to you, and if nobody wants to talk to you, you don't get your name in the media. So, he represents Ohio, where there are lots of people out of work because of the auto crisis, the financial crisis and the housing crisis. Who do you blame? Why the ferreners* of coarse, they are stealing all the jobs and he knows that of all the jobless people in the U.S. only about 3% of the loss is due to ferren* competition. It's oil stupid! Stick that in your pipe and smoke it.
See you soon.
The Old Philosopher
*Foreigners for those that don't know how to spel.