Risk taking-Why do we do it?
We are blinded by the possible outcomes-Riches, power, love, notoriety,etc. What are the real odds of winning (getting rich)? Very, very high. The cemetery of failed enterprises is very silent. We hear about the grand successes, we don't hear much about the failures, grand or otherwise, even though they out number successes by a wide margin.
So, can success be ascribed to the casual relationship between specific traits and subsequent events? Trump is shrewd, tall, hardworking and cynical. Is that why he's rich?
Can failure be ascribed to the casual relationship between specific traits and subsequent events? Bob the Bear is shrewd, tall, hardworking, and cynical. Is that why he's poor? What truly separates Trump from Bob the Bear is a single factor-Luck. Plain luck. that's why you often see rich men and women become poor, they ran out of luck. Madoff investors, 401k owners at Enron, Lucent, World Communications, the list goes on and on.
Nobody deserves to be a millionaire and conversely, nobody deserves not to be a millionaire. So if you can deserve either rich or not rich, what is the difference? Again, Luck
Now it gets a bit scary as we go further along this road of fortune, good or bad. The bigger question becomes; how much do we have to do with our success or failure; wealth or poverty?
Think about it. Not very comforting to realize that luck is the difference!
The basic ideas for this blog come from "The Black Swan" by N.N.Taleb.
Thursday, May 14, 2009
Sunday, May 10, 2009
Mother's Day
Good day all you Mothers out there.
I hope that you all had a great day. It's nice once a year to pay homage to you wonderful women. actually everyday should be mother's day, but then who would be left to run the world. Sorry girls, you'll just have to keep running things.
Lots of love to all of you.
the Old Philosopher (and I do mean old)
I hope that you all had a great day. It's nice once a year to pay homage to you wonderful women. actually everyday should be mother's day, but then who would be left to run the world. Sorry girls, you'll just have to keep running things.
Lots of love to all of you.
the Old Philosopher (and I do mean old)
Friday, May 8, 2009
Bank Day
Well the stress test is over and there is a huge sigh of relief, just like when I used to take them. If I live it was a success, the banks are alive and seem to be doing just fine. For the heads of the banks it may be a different story. Ken Lewis CEO of the Bank of America, I told them to stay in Frisco, is humbled (in his words ) by the stockholders removing him from the chairmanship of the board.
He was on CNBC for 20 minutes and Bloomberg for 1 hour! He made what I thought was a good point this morning on CNBC. He was asked why didn't the banks regulate themselves on the dispensing of loans to uncredit worthy borrowers? No one twisted their arm to make bad loans. His response was that banks compete for deposits, so on a level playing field they have to go as far as legally possible to draw in money. Then they have to loan all that money out as fast as possible. If they don't do the above they will lose market share, and that's a no-no.
Now if the Federal Reserve and the SEC had been doing their job, they would have put the breaks on the heated up economy, by raising interest rates, reducing the money supply, increasing bank reserves and stopping the proliferation of derivatives. Now why didn't they do their jobs???
It's my opinion that the President of the United States of America told the Federal Reserve, the SEC, FDIC, FHA, Fanny Mae, and anyone that he might control that he needed lots of money (Taxes,Debt) to prosecute the wars that he was fighting. His thinking was that if the economy was rolling along at high speed, the war wouldn't be so much of a burden on the minds of the people. In other words the people were not asked to sacrifice for the war, so everything was great. In other words the President, Bush II, was afraid of even a mild slowdown. Because of this short sightedness, the people of this country are sacrificing anyway, but much more than if a bit of cold water had been thrown on the economy when everything got overheated.
We are talking TRILLIONS! For what?
All comments are welcome, now that you know where to find me.
Hang in there. I think our new President has a brain and best of all he knows how to use it for the benefit of the people.
Thanx for your time.
He was on CNBC for 20 minutes and Bloomberg for 1 hour! He made what I thought was a good point this morning on CNBC. He was asked why didn't the banks regulate themselves on the dispensing of loans to uncredit worthy borrowers? No one twisted their arm to make bad loans. His response was that banks compete for deposits, so on a level playing field they have to go as far as legally possible to draw in money. Then they have to loan all that money out as fast as possible. If they don't do the above they will lose market share, and that's a no-no.
Now if the Federal Reserve and the SEC had been doing their job, they would have put the breaks on the heated up economy, by raising interest rates, reducing the money supply, increasing bank reserves and stopping the proliferation of derivatives. Now why didn't they do their jobs???
It's my opinion that the President of the United States of America told the Federal Reserve, the SEC, FDIC, FHA, Fanny Mae, and anyone that he might control that he needed lots of money (Taxes,Debt) to prosecute the wars that he was fighting. His thinking was that if the economy was rolling along at high speed, the war wouldn't be so much of a burden on the minds of the people. In other words the people were not asked to sacrifice for the war, so everything was great. In other words the President, Bush II, was afraid of even a mild slowdown. Because of this short sightedness, the people of this country are sacrificing anyway, but much more than if a bit of cold water had been thrown on the economy when everything got overheated.
We are talking TRILLIONS! For what?
All comments are welcome, now that you know where to find me.
Hang in there. I think our new President has a brain and best of all he knows how to use it for the benefit of the people.
Thanx for your time.
Thursday, May 7, 2009
Ladies Day
A great morning for the ladies. Two very impressive, smart, dedicated women showed up on the CNBC Squawk Box this morning. Arianna Huffington, who most of you have probably heard of and Elizabeth Warren who most of you have never heard of. Arianna runs the Huffington Post, an internet newspaper that is wonderful, not your everyday daily (www.huffingtonpost.com). Elizabeth is the Chairwoman of the Congressional Oversight Panel, which oversees the Government stimulus plan. I've seen Elizabeth on TV a few times and I've read about her books and essays, which cover subjects that are dear to my heart, like the crushing of the middle class in this country. To get a flavor of who this woman is go to www.youtube.com. "Conversations with History" or look under her name for some great videos. You can also get acquainted with Arianna Huffington on YouTube under name and "Authors@Google: Arianna Huffington". These two women have both been elected to the "Time 100 Most Influential People". President Obama can be proud of having these two brilliant women in his constituency. I'm proud.
Follow up on these two, it will be very enlightening, guaranteed!
One more item. Eliot Spitzer was on board this morning. I can't believe that I would listen to him, but I did, and learned a lot more from listening now than when he was Governor of NY. Funny, how time changes attitudes??? I'll save that for another time.
Debi, how did your operation go? I hope that you came through with flying colors.
The Old Philosopher
Follow up on these two, it will be very enlightening, guaranteed!
One more item. Eliot Spitzer was on board this morning. I can't believe that I would listen to him, but I did, and learned a lot more from listening now than when he was Governor of NY. Funny, how time changes attitudes??? I'll save that for another time.
Debi, how did your operation go? I hope that you came through with flying colors.
The Old Philosopher
Tuesday, May 5, 2009
Today's Debate
Well here we are, another day, another opinion. The opinion of the day I believe belongs to the Democrat Senator from Ohio, Sherrod Brown. He's a Democrat and he's worried about President Obama's trade policy. He feels that the giant American trade deficit with the rest of the world, is due to an unlevel playing field.
If he wanted to talk facts instead of politics, he would find out that in 2008 two thirds (2/3) of the deficit came from the importation of petroleum products. those imports have nothing to do with the creation of jobs or the lose of jobs. Another 20.5% of imports came from Canada and Mexico, our two most reliable allies and trading partners. It's in the U.S's interest to keep them both economically strong. So why is the good senator complaining? I'd have to take a wild guess that if you are in politics and you don't complain about something, nobody wants to talk to you, and if nobody wants to talk to you, you don't get your name in the media. So, he represents Ohio, where there are lots of people out of work because of the auto crisis, the financial crisis and the housing crisis. Who do you blame? Why the ferreners* of coarse, they are stealing all the jobs and he knows that of all the jobless people in the U.S. only about 3% of the loss is due to ferren* competition. It's oil stupid! Stick that in your pipe and smoke it.
See you soon.
The Old Philosopher
*Foreigners for those that don't know how to spel.
If he wanted to talk facts instead of politics, he would find out that in 2008 two thirds (2/3) of the deficit came from the importation of petroleum products. those imports have nothing to do with the creation of jobs or the lose of jobs. Another 20.5% of imports came from Canada and Mexico, our two most reliable allies and trading partners. It's in the U.S's interest to keep them both economically strong. So why is the good senator complaining? I'd have to take a wild guess that if you are in politics and you don't complain about something, nobody wants to talk to you, and if nobody wants to talk to you, you don't get your name in the media. So, he represents Ohio, where there are lots of people out of work because of the auto crisis, the financial crisis and the housing crisis. Who do you blame? Why the ferreners* of coarse, they are stealing all the jobs and he knows that of all the jobless people in the U.S. only about 3% of the loss is due to ferren* competition. It's oil stupid! Stick that in your pipe and smoke it.
See you soon.
The Old Philosopher
*Foreigners for those that don't know how to spel.
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