Wednesday, August 5, 2009

A Possibility

Here is a possible picture as I see it. It aint necessarily so, but it gives me something to look for.
Stock markets are rising in the U.S., China and Japan plus all the lesser markets are also rising. Money is flowing in from all over the world, pushing stocks higher. Hedge funds, pension funds, mutual fund and to a smaller extent the public are all being forced to participate, because there is no other market big enough to handle so much cash. Now the only consumer in this group is the public and they are the smallest part, so the market rise does little to increase consumer spending. Therefore the economy doesn't expand as fast as the market and we have the final bubble!
The Fed is hoping that the rising market will lift consumption, and say that it does, but it wont rise as fast as the market is rising. The markets get way ahead of themselves, forcing the Fed to raise interest, because nobody wants to buy 3% bonds when the stock markets are roaring. In other words it isn't raising rates because there is a boom going on, it's raising them because it needs the money to finance the ongoing deficit, plus tax reciepts are the worst since the Great Depression. Tax collection are down because people are still out of work and corporations are not growing, earning aren't growing and they all have tax loss carryovers due to their giant losses.
With the market at a high, interest rates going up and the economy not yet out of the woods; any disruption, such as oil rising further, a small country getting into financial trouble, housing doesn't recover, autos can't get above 10 million unit/year,the dollar drops precipitously, interest rates start to ratchet up because of inflation fears, or interest rates drop because of deflation fears. Fear can raise its ugly head for no particularly good reason. The talking heads and empty suits will give plenty of reasons, but always after the fact.
Bottom line, if the market advances too far in relation to the economy's growth, and then the economy doesn't show any growth, the market has a big problem. At 1,000 the S&P 500 is selling at 18.2 X's projected 2009 earnings of $55. Projected earnings for 2010 are $74.75, an approximate 50% increase. If that happens the market is selling at 13.4 X's earning, not too bad. At 1,100 it's 14.8 X's 2010 projected earnings, still not bad, but if earnings don't grow, the rush for the exits will be horrendous. If earning look like they are going to be $55 or less in 2010, then the S&P 500 earnings ratio could be in the single digits. That would be HORRENDOUS!
My guess, if the economy starts down again, and I'm not saying that it will, but if it does buy some puts (70's ??), you'll need all the protection you can get.
Good luck and let's hope that the market is right about the future, and that all of the above is just something to think about.